The Copper Needed for Electric Vehicles and Grid Upgrades in the United States Far Exceeds Current Production

A study from the University of Michigan shows that the U.S. cannot mine copper quickly enough to meet the demand for transitioning to renewable energy as outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act. The amount of copper required for electric vehicles and grid upgrades far exceeds current production. The study suggests policymakers consider the limitations of copper supply and proposes focusing on hybrid vehicles, a more attainable goal that can also meet global demand for copper in developing critical infrastructure.

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in 2022, mandates that by 2035, 100% of vehicles must be electric. However, the copper required for electric vehicles is three to five times that of internal combustion engine vehicles, not to mention the copper needed for grid upgrades.

"A typical Honda Accord requires about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery-electric Honda Accord requires nearly 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines need about 10 tons of copper, and the amount of copper in offshore wind turbines can more than double," said Adam Simon, Professor of Earth and Environmental Studies at MIT. "We show in our paper that it is virtually impossible for mining companies to produce the required amount of copper."

The study examined 120 years of global data from copper mining companies and calculated the amount of copper needed to transition U.S. power infrastructure and vehicle fleets to renewable energy. The study found that the demand for copper for renewable energy will exceed the current production of copper mines. This research, led by Simon and Cornell University researcher Lawrence Cathles, was published by the International Energy Forum and discussed in a webinar titled "Copper Mining and Vehicle Electrification."

Part of the short-term funding issue is the permitting process for mining companies. Simon stated that it takes about 20 years from discovering new copper deposits to obtaining a permit to build a mine.

Mining Challenges and Global Demand

Copper is mined by over 100 companies across six continents. Researchers extracted global copper production data since 1900, resulting in 120 years of copper output by global mining companies. They then simulated the remaining copper production of mining companies for the rest of this century.

Researchers found that from 2018 to 2050, the world will need to mine 115% more copper than was mined in all of human history up to 2018 just to meet the "business as usual" requirements. This would meet our current demand for copper and support the developing world without considering the green energy transition.

To meet the global demand for copper for vehicle electrification, as many as six new large copper mines will have to go into production annually over the next few decades. About 40% of new copper from these mines would be used for grid upgrades related to electric vehicles.

"I'm a huge fan of the Inflation Reduction Act. I think it's fantastic. I have solar panels, batteries, and an electric vehicle," Simon said. "I fully support the energy transition. But it needs to be done in a way that is achievable."

Researchers suggest that instead of completely electrifying the U.S. vehicle fleet, the focus should be on producing hybrid vehicles.

Simon said, "We hope this study will be taken up by decision-makers who should consider copper as a limiting factor for the energy transition and think about how to allocate copper. For example, we know that the climate impact of a Toyota Prius is actually slightly better than that of a Tesla. Instead of producing 20 million EVs a year in the U.S. and 100 million battery electric vehicles globally each year, it is more feasible to focus on producing 20 million hybrids."

The Broad Impact of Copper Scarcity

Researchers also pointed out that developing countries need copper to build infrastructure, such as building power grids for approximately 1 billion people currently without electricity; providing clean water facilities for about 2 billion people without access to clean water; and providing wastewater treatment for 4 billion people lacking sanitation facilities.

"Renewable energy technology, clean water, wastewater treatment, electricity—these all rely on copper. Therefore, we will ultimately face a contradiction between the amount of copper needed for infrastructure in underdeveloped countries and that needed for the energy transition. We believe that our research highlights that the U.S. can make significant progress in emissions reduction. However, if environmental groups and policymakers do not fundamentally change their views on the mining industry, it will be impossible to meet current (and almost the only) demand for downstream renewable energy technology manufacturing through upstream mining production of copper and other metals."